![]() ![]() Its predicted path will then push into South Carolina and then turn northward into western North Carolina, Tennessee, western Virginia, Kentucky and West Virginia. Florence is still expected to make landfall Friday near Wilmington, North Carolina. Here’s what to expect from Florence and when to expect it, based on the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center and other sources.Īrrival: Meteorologists released more details on how the storm might move after landfall. More than 10 million people may be affected by Florence due to its immense size. Georgia and Maryland’s governors, along with the mayor of Washington, D.C., have issued emergency declarations of their own. Governors in North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia have declared states of emergency, and President Donald Trump has authorized federal funding and resources to assist with preparation for the storm. Hurricane Florence is located 320 miles southeast of North Carolina’s coast and advancing at a speed of 15 miles per hour. In the Pacific, Hawaii is recovering from tropical storm Olivia, and the largest typhoon of the year - Super Typhoon Mangkhut - is approaching the northern Philippines with 150-mile-per-hour winds. 4vt4kfIecOĮlsewhere, tropical storm Isaac is hitting the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, while a storm in the Gulf of Mexico threatens to become a tropical depression and bring heavy rains to Mexico, Texas and Louisiana. The outer fringes of Hurricane Florence are approaching from the southeast. ![]() This shear will decline just as the storm encounters warmer waters near the coast, but forecasters expect the storm to maintain its current strength until landfall. The outer bands of its tropical storm-force winds are now reaching shore.įlorence’s winds dropped by 20 miles per hour in 24 hours because it encountered a patch of wind shear - a shift in wind direction at high altitude. However, its rain and storm surge forecasts remain unchanged. Before we dive into the model, let us first load the data and do some exploratory data analysis.Overnight, Hurricane Florence’s winds continued to decline. We will then use the developed model to do an ensemble prediction of Hurricane Florence path, and compare the model results with the actual path traversed by Florence. In this study we will be building a simple storm track prediction model using the Atlantic Hurricane Database ( HURDAT2). NHC maintains a list of forecast models with varying complexity and structure that can be used to predict the path of hurricanes. Accurately forecasting the path of the hurricane allows us to develop mitigation strategies to minimize the economic impact of the hurricanes and save lives. As the impact of historic rainfall and flooding from Florence is still unfolding, it is reasonable to expect Florence’s cost to be revised significantly higher.įrom its genesis on August 30th, The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has been tracking the path of Florence and issuing Reports and Advisories on the present and projected paths of the hurricane. ![]() According to Moody’s analytics, Florence initial damage estimates is between $17-$22 billion USD. Despite weakening to a Category 1 storm, Florence still had enough wind speed to cause significant loss of life, disruption to homes and communities, property damage, and other economic losses along the North Carolina coastline. This slow moving storm was originally projected as a Category 4 hurricane with gusts of 140 mph, before making a landfall as a Category 1 storm. From its genesis near Cape Verde on August 30th, Florence traveled nearly 4,100 miles before making landfall near Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, around 7:15 a.m. Hurricane Florence was the first major hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. ![]()
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